It Just Got Interesting

The average voter doesn’t care about polls. Nor should they, polls are ever changing and one even a week before an election can be entirely different from the actual result. No, any sane person would ignore this gibberish and get on with their lives. Unless of course they are a political junkie, in which case these figures are poured over as a gambling addict would study reports of football injuries before a big match.

Previously, your libertarian commentator here has been in he bunker, quaking in fear. This is because anything but a Tory victory in May seemed unlikely. Truth be told, the reality of Prime Minister Cameron was proving too much for my fragile mind and I was forced to retreat beneath the duvet with a bottle of whiskey.

That was until today, because today things just got interesting. The Times have published poll data indicating that the Tory lead has fallen so much that if the election was held today Brown would remain as prime minister. Holy Moley! The Tory lead is down to 2 points, which is remarkable considering they once enjoyed a massive 26 point lead.

While choosing between Brown and Cameron is like choosing from a menu consisting of just puke and shit, the fact that the election is no longer certain makes this the most exciting election the UK has seen since 97.

The repercussions of this drop in the public’s esteem will have dire consequences for the Conservative party. Unless they move quickly to quell dissent, the traditional Tory grass-roots will become disillusioned with Cameron’s “modernising” and demand policies to appeal to the core vote, such as tough immigration and hanging dope peddlers.

So why have the public gone cold on Cameron? The biggest problem, I think, is that for all his talk of change he has yet to tell us of something that would change society. Six promises are being made by the Tories in the Brighton conference this weekend: cutting the national debt (not much of a change, everyone can see that needs to be done), boosting enterprise (because Labour hate business, clearly!), making Britain more family friendly (quite how this is a change, we do not know), backing the National Health Service (ahh yes, that ignored public service that has been starved of finance under Brown), raising school standards (Labour hate schools too), and changing the apparatus of politics (yet they oppose reforming our broken electoral system… hmmm).

Even if the Tories kept to their promises, our society wouldn’t be changed much. At best it would be run slightly better, and even then that will be open to interpretation.

This equalising of the two parties odds makes interesting news for the Lib Dems. With Labour and the Conservatives’ fates in the balance, the Liberals can choose the winning party by targeting the voters of the opposite side. If they target Tory votes, Labour gets in. If they go for Labour supporters, the conservatives get in. Ironically the Lib Dems are destined to make a winning party out of whichever they disagree with most, though that winning party will still need the Liberals to prop up their vote if they want any sort of parliamentary clout. It’s clear that the Liberal Democrats could very well be holding all the cards, but how they play them is certainly uncertain.

With over two months to go and three live debates, the whole game is still to play for. But at least now the game should be interesting.

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